2020 — The American Bogside?
As dawn breaks on election day in America never has a modern presidential contest had such little grip on the global attention span. While no way short of drama and meddling by Big Tech and unseen intelligence agencies, 2020 we can all agree misses the same sort of dynamism that we witnessed in the 2016 race, relating directly to the collapsing prestige of the American nation.
Historians will note that fifty years of social and demographic decay came home to roost in the American Republic in the final 6 month period of 2020. For decades the rot had been slowly bubbling away, the racial power games, the emergence of woke capital as a phenomenon, the increasing white working class disquiet that fell into Trump’s lap.
The secret is now very much out, America is less one nation under God but rather half a dozen competing racial, social and political septs battling it out for hegemony in the boardrooms and now on the streets. Until this Summer these dogfights had been mostly cultural and below board but the sight of American cities ablaze, the real prospect of civil unrest, economic depression and a contested election casts doubts as to the viability of the American state entering a new decade.
The Christian Republic that conquered a continent and defeated the Japanese Empire and Third Reich is now a fading 20th century memory of empty plinths and old films. In its place it leaves a culturally fractured oligarchy casting its tentacles across the world through its various satellites. Ireland is just one of those satellites, and our ruling class are mimicking America to a T when it comes to importing the politics of racialised strife, not seeing where the finished product ends up.
That the America and Americans that stormed the Normandy Beaches would be today classified as white nationalists under modern criteria should be evidence enough to most of how fast the culture has shifted even the past year. Even 30 years ago, America had something of a semi-distinguishable WASP ruling caste, as epitomised by the Bush dynasty that still genuflected to ideas of patriotism, even as they were quietly transfering the wealth away from the nation by means of globalisation.
Now the mask has well and truly fallen off, with American cultural elites attempting a total year zero moment of complete historical erasure of every problematic cultural artifact representing the ancien regime, from Thomas Jefferson to old movies on streaming services. With this cultural cannibalisation we are witnessing a generational change in American liberalism, with the college kids who first showed their fangs during the Occupy protests and were laughed at as being SJWs during the 2010s taking charge of the American Empire, displacing an older generation of neoliberals.
Presently enemies of the liberal regime may see their social media suspended or website hosting shut down, in the not too distant future it may be impossible for political dissenters to even attain bank accounts.
Political violence has been normalised on American streets, either through the tactical use of black agitation by Democratic aligned elements of the media-NGO establishment, or even the small but vocal right-wing militia movement reaching a crescendo not seen since the era of Ruby Ridge and Waco. Like many second-world states, elections are less about who casts what ballot but rather which faction controls which organ of state. By 2030 which political bloc controls the NSA, Defence Forces or intelligence agencies may matter more in America than who wins the electoral college.
It would not exactly be hyperbole to compare the state of civic society in America to that of Northern Ireland in the late 1960s, in fact some mainstream journalists already do. The Northern statelet collapsed in the summer of 1969 following a botched civil rights struggle that ran straight across a minefield of tribal tensions.
Following the immolation of the political centre in the form of Terence O’Neill, rival paramilitaries filled the void as normal governance became unworkable. While the North had a history of tension similar to American racial politics, something like the Troubles was unthinkable to most until at such point it became a living reality to all.
In the place of the Catholic civil rights struggle, we have in America the ongoing wave of black and left-wing violence engineered by parts of the American establishment for their own ends. It was remarked that the IRA in Derry barely had a handful of handguns when the Troubles started, America on the other hand has plentiful ammunition and willing triggermen waiting in the wings.
While chucklesome, the CHAZ fiasco shows us a template by which urban centres in America may in effect secede from the rump federal state in the potentially tumultuous years to come. On their southern frontier Americans face a failing state in the form of Mexico where the past ten years have seen well organised cartels seize the control of large amounts of territory as effective warlords. Don’t even be surprised should the Silicon-based hyper-wealthy create their own semi-autonomous charter cities, as is often fantasised about by some should the American state enter terminal decline.
As the federal standoff in Portland shows, or the Kenosha shooting, or even the spiralling murder rate since the riots commenced, do not underestimate the potential of this current wave of destabilastion to snowball. Don’t even be surprised if elements of the American security state quietly begin choosing sides and conducting small-scale dirty wars using proxies, as was seen in the North. The beginnings of which may be occurring already, especially if American police face disbandment.
If America enters a de facto Civil War it will not be with a formal Fort Sumter moment and easily defined sides. If anything it will be a tapestry of fifth-generation warfare and various rogue actors from Mexican cartels to private mercenaries filling the vacuum as the hobbled Washington regime loses control. Collapses are very often instantaneous as was seen in the USSR in 1991, but may also be dragged out over two or three decades.
The roadmap for the next few months and years in America is tricky. The best case scenario for the liberal regime is a quick Trump deposement, and the social turbulence being stabilised by a Biden/Harris tenure. However, as Macron shows, not even a revivified centre can grasp the upheaval facing the Western world; and America, one way or another, is approaching its Bogside moment.
Ireland at the End of an Era
As America hurdles towards balkanisation, and France enters a low level civil war dealing with an Islamist insurgency, Ireland and her elites remain as dew-eyed as they were a decade ago about globalism. Nowhere will the end of Pax Americana have more of an effect than Ireland, where our ruling caste have modeled our society off the failing stateside model, blinded to its imperfections.
Not learning any lessons from history, our government has again hitched its wagons to the Democratic ticket in the hopes that a potentially dementia-riven Biden may think kindly of the Old Sod should we be faced with a hard border. If America is facing a whack-a-mole of civic strife and geopolitical turbulence, will their State Department really care about border checks in Monaghan?
While they are compared erroneously to our Tories or GOP, Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil rest comfortably with the centrist and even left-leaning faction of the Democratic Party, many of their youth members spend summers on internship rotations in the American capital with Democratic politicians learning the lay of the land in the American Empire.
Per their craven reputation, our leaders have even begun to lobby the potential Biden administration to express leniency towards Irish illegals in the US. Irish America truth be told is just a shadow of itself demographically as it fades away into the American melting pot. The zenith of the lobby’s influence was sometime between Camelot and the Good Friday Agreement, when this country held the ear of the world’s major superpower.
The past ten years we have humbled ourselves, naming petrol stations after American presidents, or nearly risking our FDI-anchored economy defending the plight of refugees at the White House for brownie points from the liberal peanut gallery. In return we have earned ourselves the right to be an economic waystation for American capitalism and social engineering projects, from gay marriage to the transgender fad, nervermind the testing ground for Big Tech meddling in elections.
Should the America epoch come to a sudden close, where would that leave us? If America grinds to a halt amid warring factions, would we continue being the Californian colony of Western Europe? Would we live like the forgotten Soviet satellite Transnistria continuing on as if nothing had happened, or would end up like the perpetually impoverished Moldova, never really coming to terms with the fall of the Soviet Empire and damage it caused to its economic model?
In Europe, a recoiling of American power back to its core in the Western hemisphere leaves the path open for nationalists to take charge on the continent. Irish liberals bemoan the militarisation of Shannon by the US military machine, but scarcely realise that American gunships and soft power are the main roadblocks against a breakthrough of illiberalism. Erdoğan sensing the impending retreat of American power is at his most brazen, aiming to destablise Europe through the Turkish expat community and weaponised migration. Perhaps this rift is the shape of things to come with a very uncertain future ahead in the wake of an American withdrawal.
Similar to Brexit, expect a very hard learning curve for the 26-county state in the years to come. Expect to see pro-diversity Irish Times column pieces and propagandising even as America potentially enters collapse mode as years of demographic and social change bubble to the fore. Our embrace of the value system of late-stage American liberalism is akin to embracing Marxist-Leninism in 1989, and may potentially take many decades to fully flush from the Irish body politic.
The Great American Satan of global liberalism will have to be fully discredited on the world stage before we Irish get the message. Strap in for a thrilling few years, but expect Ireland to be the last place on God’s green earth to get the memo.