It was recently pointed out to me that, as nationalists, if we wanted the Government to act in a way that inflamed sympathy for our movement, we would have the Government act exactly as they have. 

Assuming that the Government are not right-wing accelerationists, there are other strategic reasons why the Government may be incentivised to blunder the handling of the migration crisis. 

Anti-Asylum Protests and Sinn Féin’s Declining Popularity

As far back as 2015, polling has consistently shown that Sinn Féin voters were the most anti-migrant voter base in the country. Recent polling has affirmed this. Last month, Sinn Féin voters ranked as the most sceptical of the Government’s refugee policy out of all the major parties. At 61% opposed to the Government’s migration policy, this is notably above the national average and significantly above Fianna Fáil (56%) and Fine Gael (47%). This generally affirms the perception of the Sinn Féin vote, not as an ideological vote but as a protest vote against the Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael. 

This is important as immigration rapidly becomes a more significant voting issue. Recently, immigration ranked as one of the two most important issues by 19% of respondents. That’s a 10% increase since the issue was last polled. This has presented an opportunity for the Government to drive a wedge between Sinn Féin and its voter base. As a result of ideological conviction, Sinn Féin is unable to play the populist card on migration. This presents an opportunity for the coalition to allow the migration crisis to devolve with the hope that Sinn Féin will hemorrhage support faster than the coalition. 

This is already bearing itself out in polling. Only a few months ago Sinn Féin was polling at a staggering 36%. Since the migration crisis escalated, this has dropped dramatically to 31%. At the same time, support for the coalition parties has completely stabilised. They’ve so far remained unaffected by the growing discontent on migration. Concerningly for Sinn Féin, many of the protests are happening in Sinn Féin strongholds. The largest protests, in East-Wall, are happening in Mary-Lou McDonald’s own constituency. 

The protests are interesting for Sinn Féin insofar as many of the posters are more explicitly anti-Sinn Féin than they are anti-Government. This could reflect a growing sense of betrayal by working-class communities by Sinn Féin as they’ve moved to the left on social issues. 

Does the Coalition Stand to Benefit from Anti-Immigration Protests?

There is reason to believe that this is the assessment the Government has made on the issue. The next local election is not until 2024, whereas the next general election is not until 2025. The coalition currently has significantly more local seats than Sinn Féin. As councillors vote in Seanad elections, calling an early general election would allow for the coalition to maintain power in the Seanad. This is even more significant as we approach the next presidential election in 2025. However, the Government has not called an early election. This could suggest that the Government believe that Sinn Féin could be damaged to such an extent by the spiralling migration crisis that they believe the next election is winnable for the coalition parties. 

This poses a difficulty for the Nationalist right. If the coalition can avoid a Sinn Féin government by playing brinkmanship with the migration crisis, growing a Nationalist movement in electoral politics might be increasingly difficult. It’s generally accepted that right-wing populism won’t be a serious force in Ireland until our people are disillusioned with the left-wing politics of Sinn Féin. 

This may be a difficult bridge to cross.

Posted by Charlie Kennedy


  1. DANIEL BUCKLEY 14/02/2023 at 1:35 pm

    Sinn Fein are relying on the Gold Fish memory spans of the dumbed down Irish electorate.
    Sinn Fein is riding on the Historical remnants of its time as the Republican and nationalist Party back in the days of Arthur Griffith move a 100 years ago.
    Sometime after the Nothern Ireland Peace Agreement ,Sinn Fein was infiltrated by a Marxist element and its ideology became a Globalist/LGBT supporting concern,with no loyalty or interest in the concerns of the real People of Ireland.
    Sinn Fein’s ideology is obfuscated and hidden from the electorate,but the Mass Migration Plantation has exposed them as the ultimate traitors and betrayers of Ireland’s Sovereignity.
    Their pathetic displays in Opposition in the Dail has shown them supporting the Covid population imprisonment Lockdowns, the Covid Apartheid Passports and the failure of the President and Supreme Court to uphold the Constitution.
    Sinn Fein are Fake Opposition and opportunists, hoping to ascend to power .by default and failure of an incompetent and rogue Regime.
    There is an alternative Nationalist movement, that is not allowed exposure by the bought and paid for corrupt Media and is the only hope for Ireland , to pull back from the abyss of chaos it is facing into.
    Does Ireland have people with the courage to break away from their comfort zone and face the reality that both sides of the present political establishment are the Enemies of Irelands People , who are intent on destroying us and displacing us with planned Mass Migration Plantationfor the benefit of the Globalist coup.


  2. As the UK continually tightens it’s immigration doors over the coming months , how will Ireland cope with 1,000 non Ukranian asylum seekers arriving every week ? What’s the point of having immigration officers @ points of entry into the state ? # Window Dressing ; Dublin looks more like Manchester with each passing day , the only difference being the Mancs ( luckily ) don’t have the woke Bohemians as a local soccer team # NGO Grifters


  3. I don’t believe in this cunning plan to hurt Sinn Fein by allowing immigration chaos. I think like everything else about this disaster it just happened – the government lost control of things long ago.

    Rather than allowing things to continue as they are in East Wall and elsewhere, it would be far better politically for FG and FF to start clamping down. The opinion polls will reward them. Vardkar is already talking the talk.

    Our best hope to turn the protest energy in to quick and long lasting changes is to reach out to FG, FF and Independent councillors. From there we swing the parties in our direction. Or encourage the swing that’s already happening. We need a councillor to speak at a protest. There are a few localities where behind the scenes contact is taking place already.

    We’re going to need a new chant to replace “Leo Leo Leo Out Out Out” though. Any ideas?


  4. Daniel BUCKLEY 20/02/2023 at 1:19 am

    The Irish Govt lost control of the Nation when Ireland embroiled itself in the previous Common Market .
    This slowly progressed to the Maastrich Treaty.
    Ireland surrendered all vestiges of an Independent Sovereign Nation, declared by Mehole Martin in the Dail as he nauseatingly prostrated himself to EU henchman Charles Michel, to the excruciating embarassment and shame of the Irish People.
    We no longer have control of our Borders, we no longer have an Independent currency to control our Economy and we no longer have control over our Laws ,which are subservient to EU Law.
    The EU Plan is to have a unified central system of political ,economic and ECB monetary control.
    All will be controlled by the diktat of the unelected EU Commission.
    This parallels the system of the Politburo of the Soviet Union.
    If you think that FF/FG/SF can be persuaded to change their policies and ideologies ,you are delusional.
    They are all on board with the destruction of Ireland as an Independent Sovereign Nation.
    The Patriotic Irish People are an encumbrance to this Master Plan and must be removed by Plantation displacement or other Pharmaceutical means.
    These Parties of FF/FG have been feeding at the trough of the Irish Taxpayer for over 100 years.They do not work in the interest of the Irish People or Nation.
    SF are no different and are lining up to gorge themselves on the fruits of Power ,from the Irish Taxpayer and the EU/UN.
    Irish politicians only concerns are their own self – aggrandisement and enrichment from the spoils of highly paid sinecures in Brussels, UN or the rich rewards as Directors of Corporations.
    This is their pay-off for facilitating the looting plundering and destruction of Ireland as a free cohesive Nation.
    None dare call it bribery.
    Irelands only hope is the failure of the EU, which is imminent as a result of Russian success in Ukraine and the aftermath of the US/NATO war crime destruction of the NS 1&2 Gas energy supply to its NATO ally Germany.
    The ramifications of this idiotic war crime against Germany will destroy US/NATO /EU control and hopefully free Ireland to follow its own destiny as an Independent ,Sovereign Nation.


  5. Ivaus@thetricolour 21/02/2023 at 6:07 pm

    …I’ve heard some dumb suggestions throughout my lifetime but to think for one minute we the voters could entrust the incumbent parties to go forward carring OUR NATIONALIST BANNER has to be the reason why parish pump politics has survived so long in Ireland. For sure, they would all back McGintys Goat to keep their in the Dail…back to sleep.


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