A political iceberg, arguably so gargantuan that it would sink Northern politics in its entirety if fully vindicated and take a chunk of the post-Brexit UK’s with it, is passing by our very eyes as PSNI/MI5 operatives, respected columnists and even senior unionists insinuate the rather obvious.
There is a sizable percentage chance that disgraced DUP leader Jeffery Donaldson was not just blackmailable but his subterranean lifestyle may have been weaponised against him around his surprise reversal towards the Windsor Framework.
BBC reporting that two former senior PSNI officers, working out of the MI5 building in London, saw Donaldson entering Chariot’s gay sauna in Whitehall coupled by speculation from BT hack Suzanne Breen and TUV leader Jim Allister add to the intrigue around Donaldson’s downfall as speculation abounds about the extent to which security forces were aware of the Lagan MP’s double life.
Allister specifically has gone on the record suggesting that Donaldson’s shift from hard opposition to facilitating the deal “begs questions”; the UK government has dismissed the allegation as “deeply distasteful and absolute nonsense.”
Recall that the DUP collapsed Stormont in 2022 over the Protocol, then Donaldson led the DUP into a UK-government deal in January 2024 to restore power-sharing, shortly before his March 2024 arrest in a volte de face that arguably reshaped Anglo-Irish and EU relations more than any one decision this side of the Belfast Agreement.
The North is not normal terrain for politics in general. The home of Stakeknife, Demis Donaldson and more political intrigue befitting a Machiavellian nation state in 16th century Italy, the idea of Donaldson being hardballed into conceding on Brexit is hardly beyond the pale.
Paradoxically, the scandal comes amid a new Fine Gael-led push for reunification in the form of a cautious blueprint, with the intent to nick the USP of both the Shinners and an erstwhile FF.
The Good Friday Agreement route to unity is democratic and consent-based: constitutional change requires support in Northern Ireland and in the Republic. The North’s political realities on the ground are a tad different than what it says on the tin.
Any constitutional transition on this island will take place inside a landscape full of old intelligence files, informers and kompromat encompassing both sides, and both governments. Northern politics has been distorted by hidden British security power with very little indicating the spooks will leave on the last boat to London if unification comes.
The recent Kenova investigation found a “maverick culture” where agent handling was sometimes treated as an “off the books” dark art, and said security forces repeatedly withheld or failed to act on threat-to-life, abduction and murder intelligence to protect agents
Separately, it was worth acknowledging now that the British security presence does not vanish overnight in the event of a UI.
Fine Gael’s “blueprint” should acknowledge that a future united Ireland could be captured, or enthralled by Northern legacy-security dynamics unless the 26-county state prepares now if such a feat can be achieved. The government should acknowledge privately or not that these issues are not peripheral to unity or conspiracy theories.
A United Ireland not as simple as a border coming down of the 6 simply folding into the Republic. It would inherit a post-conflict security ecosystem: MI5/PSNI arrangements and all that entails.
If unmanaged, those dynamics could become the dominant political force in the new state. No republican party or movement can prepare for this because the decisive materials sit inside classified British structures.
All-Ireland politics would become dominated by questions like we have seen with Donaldson this week. Rather crudely, politics in the Republic would become ‘northernised.’
Republicans might initially think legacy exposure strengthens the case for unity. But once the archive opens, it would not only damage the British state or unionism. It could expose republican informers, internal killings, protected assets and compromised community figures.
That is the hard truth Fine Gael, and every serious constitutional actor, should acknowledge. A credible united Ireland document must contain a serious chapter on, intelligence and post-conflict legacy and a firm hand from Dublin to manage the tortuous transition.
This is not an argument against unity. It is an argument against childish unity
Modern Ireland’s great weakness is that it often thinks it has outgrown the North without ever having understood it. A responsible unity project must start from the opposite premise: north of the border is not a sentimental appendix or two-dimensional Kneecap song. It is a hard political reality, and if the Republic does not prepare for it, that reality will prepare the Republic.
The conclusion is simple: prepare now, or be consumed later. It didn’t begin and certainly won’t end with Donaldson.
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