There are few things as disappointing as two relatively nationalist administrations coming to blows. Yet that is what is happening on the Polish-Belarussian border. 

Following an attempt at astro-turfing a revolution similar to what toppled the Yanukovych regime in Ukraine, Belarus and the Western powers have been in a geopolitical stand-off. 

Where previously Lukashenko had flirted with the idea of coming closer to the European bloc (much to the chagrin of Vladimir Putin), the instigation of the attempted revolution has placed Belarus firmly back within the orbit of the Russian Federation.

Following Lukashenko’s put down of the American putsch attempt, as well as his diversion of a flight in order to capture (and potentially torture) an individual who has been described as a dissident journalist, the European Union imposed progressively tighter measures against Belarus. 

The new targeted economic sanctions include the prohibition to directly or indirectly sell, supply, transfer or export to anyone in Belarus equipment, technology or software intended primarily for use in the monitoring or interception of the internet and of telephone communications, and dual-use goods and technologies for military use and to specified persons, entities or bodies in Belarus.”

“Trade in petroleum products, potassium chloride (‘potash’), and goods used for the production or manufacturing of tobacco products is restricted. Furthermore, access to EU capital markets is restricted, and providing insurance and re-insurance to the Belarusian government and Belarusian public bodies and agencies is prohibited.”

“Lastly, the European Investment Bank will stop any disbursement or payment under any existing agreements in relation to projects in the public sector, and any existing Technical Assistance Service Contracts.”

“Member states will also be required to take actions to limit the involvement in Belarus of multilateral development banks of which they are members (…) A total of 166 persons and 15 entities are currently subject to restrictive measures, which comprise an asset freeze applicable to both individuals and entities, and travel ban on individuals.”

In response, Lukashenko has struck back in a way that is in plain terms, quite effective. 

By flying in migrants from the Middle East and directing them to the European border, Lukashenko is effectively creating another destabilisation route into Europe. 

Polish guards are holding the line at this point in time and the European Commission is, for now, backing the Polish Government on the issue.

In a game of brinkmanship however, the Europeans will undoubtedly blink first, and either try to force Poland to allow migrants into the European Union (and offer to redistribute across the bloc), or pay Lukashenko in the same way Erdogan was paid to stop the tide from the south.

While this is a good move on the part of the Belarussians, this author simply cannot countenance the use of migration as a weapon against a European country, particularly one led by nationalist-conservatives like PiS.

One would hope the Europeans and the Belarussians will put down the sabres and, instead, both lift sanctions on the regime and stop the flow of migrants into Europe.

Posted by Donnachadh O'Neill

4 Comments

  1. EU doesn’t define Europe: Belarus is as much a European nation as France or Poland or Ireland. Eastern Europe isn’t a different continent, clue’s in the name. Identifying Europe with European Union only serves to legitimise EU. Put EU or ‘Europe’ . Otherwise good article.

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  2. Coveney will send aeroplanes to Belarus , & repatriate them to Ballina & Tullamore .

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  3. Question, Think 10/11/2021 at 10:47 am

    The EU you could say has become a negative influence on eastern europe and indeed all of europe, it has destabilised the entire region. The communist EU preaches about its values, whilst at the same time, it keeps its mouth shut about all the protests around europe against the clot-shots and the tie in with freedom passes. Instead the EU focuses its attention on the climate hoax/communist agenda promoting it every chance they get! It has kept its mouth shut about the protesting by italians against their government forcing a dangerous injection on them or a violation of their personal space by sticking swabs up their nose in order to enter workplaces. It has kept its mouth shut about the tens of thousands of vaccine deaths and millions of injuries around europe. The EU is no one to preach about Lukashenko. The EU is a silent sneaky dictator! Preaching about its values, when many see no value in the EU only tyranny! The EU is communism! all it needs is the sickle and hammer in its flag, to show its true colours!

    The whole scenario around the polish border has the potential to create a dangerous conflict between poland and belarus. All started because of the EU sticking their nose into other countries business. People should look at it in different ways aswell, it is much more complex than people realise. There is also a humanitarian aspect to it regarding the harsh conditions of how women and their children are being left outside in the cold, basically starving. The lamestream and the EU are already starting to describe it as a form of “Russia/Belarus aggression versus the EU” which is a very dangerous line of thinking to be broadcasting.

    If the EU had stricter border controls for a start, the humanitarian problems around dangerous migration routes into europe would not exist. The immigrants would not be so determined to make dangerous sea crossings, or to be waiting out in the eastern european winter, for a chance to get into europe, if they knew that european countries have very strict border controls. There are other ways of helping people that does not involve open borders.

    The EU is to blame for all the tension around the polish border. It is a dangerous thing when there is potential for the polish and belarussian military to come to blows, with the EU in one corner and russia in the other.

    What will the EU ask for if poland got into conflict with belarus? More justification for an EU army? What narrative are they going to create? Are they going to create more divisions? Russians and belarussians are every bit as indigenous european as anyone in the so-called EU. Poland should respect its slavic brother Belarus. The EU is financially punishing poland aswell, the same way as Belarus.

    It seems to be that behind the scenes, something is using the EU and russia as pawns on a chess board, and facing them towards each other. The whole ideology around the creation of an EU army is because of russia! That line of thinking is dangerous.

    Always question the EU and how it is being used as a cetralizing power.

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  4. The EU will ensure the economic invaders will be coming to a neighbourhood near you. The great replacement continues apace.

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