The Dublin Bay South bye-election provides an opportunity for the public to register their opposition to the government’s lockdown policy. Those who are opposed to lockdowns need to use this election as a warning to the government and all pro-lockdown parties that there is public support for the idea that lockdowns should end immediately.
This will require a ‘vote anti-lockdown, transfer anti-lockdown’ strategy. As long as voters transfer among anti-lockdown candidates, it doesn’t matter which one obtains first-preference votes. The anti-lockdown candidates are Justin Barrett, Mairéad Tóibín, Jacqui Gilbourne, and Dolores Cahill; anti-lockdown voters should vote for one of these and transfer to all of the others.
Given that the contest to win the seat will be between James Geogheghan and Ivana Bacik, if a voter seeks to influence who wins the seat, then they will have to ultimately transfer to one of these candidates. While one could argue that there is no significant difference between them, it should be recognised that Geogheghan’s previously having joined Renua does attest to ideological instincts and political courage that is not found among the average Fine Gaeler. Given that he would be no worse than Bacik, he should be transferred to latterly after all of the anti-lockdown candidates.
It is as likely as not that the government, who are completely enthralled to NPHET, will further delay the re-opening of indoor hospitality even beyond the current re-opening date, while it is also as likely as not that tertiary in-class teaching will be postponed for the next semester. The reluctance about re-opening is in spite of the data, reproduced below, which show that infections have been stable since April, after falling since January. Deaths of persons with covid are now in single figures. Pro-lockdown politicians and media ignore this data which would recommend ending all restrictions, while talking up the ‘delta variant’, seemingly oblivious to the fact that it is suppressed by the vaccines.
The scare around covid is maintained by using propaganda charts which are designed by having the y-axis of a chart at about the same height as the quantity of infections which are being presented as a high amount. A contextual understanding of the prevalence of covid can be observed by comparing the amount of infections to a large portion of the public. As the chart below shows the proportion of the population that was infected at any given time was miniscule, and that if this accurate representation was briefed to the government and presented to the public in March 2020, there would likely have been no lockdowns at all.
The Irish public must now bring to an end the lockdowns by whatever means necessary. This task will begin by voting for anti-lockdown candidates in the forthcoming bye-election.