Dogwhistles or not, Starmer’s Asylum Clampdown Will Send Shockwaves to Ireland

Harsh rhetoric and policy reforms meant to fend off a growing Reform electoral challenge could give rise to yet another round of the Anglo-Irish asylum wars, as UK PM Keir Starmer announced new measures to curb irregular and excessive migration.

Increasingly seen as the primary conduit for illegals into the Republic, the Belfast to Dublin asylum corridor is primed to reignite as a political hot potato. Fresh attempts by London to scope out ‘return hubs’ for illegals, likely to increase the pull factor to the 26.

Despite the signing of the Windsor Framework in 2023 meant to draw a line under Brexit-era politicisation of the border, the era of mass migration has put a new dimension on the very old problem of partition. The twilight days of Tory rule saw cynical attempts by London to direct asylum seekers down the M1 to the Republic, exploiting the lack of rigorous checks at the border to the glee of Brexiteer commentators.

This classic example of Tory power games poisoning our politics contributed in part to the emergence of tent cities around Dublin’s South Inner City, alongside greater recognition of migration as an issue of national security following growing public backlash and criminal acts by the new arrivals.

The initial Rwanda-induced surge was partially quelled by the Irish government’s attempts to designate the UK as a ‘safe’ third country, as Dublin pinned its hopes on a more Hibernophile UK administration following the British election last year.

This detente looks to be ill-fated, as post-Southport riots Starmer’s administration looks to at least rhetorically stabilise the UK’s runaway migration system, all the while signing away visa rights to India courtesy of a new trade deal.

This week’s stump speech by Starmer on migration should clarify to DoJ mandarins that the migration pass the parcel game is a new constant in Anglo-Irish politics and one which Dublin should prepare to play quickly.

As argued in this publication before, the UK is a collapsing sun in demographic terms and one which could further destabilise the Republic as it directs mass migration to Ireland, north and south.

Alongside a push for an all-island asylum policy that protects Ulster and the Republic from an asylum flux, Dublin must squeeze the Belfast route southward through data-led monitoring and enhanced checkpoints on coaches heading to the capital.

This asylum crisis is arguably the first major challenge for evolving post-Brexit relations between a SF-controlled Stormont and Leinster House, and one which could indicate the viability of an all-island reunification and its ability to grapple with the problems of the 21st century around replacement migration.

The fast-tracking of rejections for cynical UK arrivals, cementing Britain as a safe country in legislation, as well as an outright ban on accommodation for asylum seekers arriving from England, will all go a long way to quelling the potential of any influx overwhelming the Republic.

The ghastly specter of a militarised Irish border, akin to the securitisation of frontiers even in Western Europe, should act as a motivating factor for even the most supine of government figures. The potential collapse of the Common Travel Area, too, should propel Dublin to pursue a new UK-Irish asylum arrangement that prevents the island from becoming a dumping ground for the world should also clarify minds.

Above all else, it must be recognised that migration control is now a fait accompli with defending the post-Good Friday Agreement constitutional order, and one which must be acted upon earnestly. Tricky diplomatic terrain awaits Irish officials attempting to navigate Anglo-Irish and 6 county politics alongside the currents of mass migration but one which will have to serve as a test to which the government is willing to put the national interest first and not secondary to the whims of the NGO lobby.